The 9-Card Queen Guess

The 9-Card Queen Guess is a classic declarer play scenario. You and dummy hold exactly 9 cards in a suit, headed by the Ace, King, and Jack. You are missing the Queen. Do you finesse, or do you cash the top honours?

Why playing for the drop works

This is the practical application of "Eight Ever, Nine Never." With 9 cards, the defenders hold 4 cards.

• The chance of a 2-2 split (dropping the Queen) is 40%.
• The chance of a singleton Queen (dropping the Queen) is 12%.

Combined, playing for the drop succeeds 52% of the time. Finessing relies on finding the Queen in a specific hand, which is exactly a 50% chance. Playing the Ace and King is mathematically superior.

A worked example: Cashing the top honors

Dummy: ♠ A K 10 3 2

Declarer: ♠ J 9 5 4

Caption: You need to avoid losing a Spade. Do not lead the Jack for a finesse! Cash the Ace, then cash the King. More often than not, the Queen will fall on the second round, leaving your Jack as a master winner.

Four common mistakes

• Finessing because you "feel" one defender has the Queen.
• Ignoring discovery plays that might reveal a defender's shape before attacking the suit.
• Applying this rule when missing the King (missing a King always requires a finesse).
• Cashing the honors in the wrong order and stranding the lead in the wrong hand.

When the rule does not apply

If the opponents' bidding or early play reveals that West started with 5 Hearts and East started with 1 Heart, East mathematically has more room in their hand to hold the missing Spade Queen. You should abandon the drop and finesse East.

Key takeaways

• 9-card fits missing the Queen: Play for the drop.
• Cash the Ace and King.
• Succeeds 52% of the time versus the 50% finesse.
• Adjust based on a known defender distribution.