Combining Chances in One Suit
Before committing to a finesse, try chances that cost nothing, such as a suit splitting evenly or a singleton honour dropping.
Many contracts depend on one extra trick. Good declarers look for a way to try two chances, one after the other, instead of staking everything on a single finesse. The order matters: try the chance that does not lose the lead first.
Why it works
A 50% finesse is a coin toss. But if you first test something that may work on its own, say a 3-3 split, and still keep the finesse in reserve, you only need one of the two to succeed.
Worked example 1: test the split, then finesse
You are in 3NT with eight sure tricks. Your ninth can come from hearts or diamonds. Dummy has the ♣A as a spare entry.
Hearts: Dummy ♥ 5 4 3, Declarer ♥ A K Q 2
Diamonds: Dummy ♦ 5 4, Declarer ♦ A Q
Cash the ♥A K Q. If the six missing hearts split 3-3 (about 36% of the time), your ♥2 is the ninth trick. If they don't, cross to dummy's ♣A and lead a diamond to the queen, which works when East holds the ♦K (50%).
The two chances together succeed about 68% of the time, compared with 50% for the finesse alone. Take the finesse first and you lose it, and the defence may cash their tricks before you ever test the hearts.
Worked example 2: cash one top honour, then finesse
Declarer (South): ♠ A K J 4 3 Dummy (North): ♠ 6 5 2
You are missing ♠Q 10 9 8 7. Cash the ♠A first. If the queen is singleton, it drops and you have five tricks. If not, cross to dummy and lead towards your K J, inserting the jack if East plays low. That wins whenever East has the queen. Cashing the ace costs nothing and adds the singleton queen chance.
Four common mistakes
Taking the finesse first and losing the lead before testing a free chance.
Cashing too many winners and leaving no entry for the finesse.
Forgetting that a defender's discards while you test a suit can tell you where the missing cards are.
Combining chances that clash, for example both needing the same entry.
When the rule does not apply
If losing the lead early is safe and you need entries later, the order may need to change. If the auction marks the missing honour, play for it directly. And if the first chance needs you to lose a trick you can't afford, just take the better single chance.
Key takeaways
Look for two chances, not one.
Try the chance that keeps the lead first.
Keep the entry you need for the second chance.
Watch the defenders' cards as you test.