Losing Trick Count - In Suit Contracts, HCP's Are Only Part Of The Story

High-card points are extremely useful during the auction.

Once you are declarer in a suit contract, however, they become much less interesting.

Your problem is no longer:

How many points do we have?

It is:

How many tricks might we lose?

Suppose you reach 4♥ holding:

♠ A73
♥ KQJ942
♦ 64
♣ K8

opposite:

♠ 85
♥ A1075
♦ AQ3
♣ 9652

You have 25 combined HCP.

Fine.

But that does not tell you how to play the hand.

Look instead at the losers from declarer's hand.

Spades: perhaps two.
Hearts: none.
Diamonds: one.
Clubs: perhaps one.

That looks like four possible losers.

Now you have a plan.

Can one spade loser be ruffed in dummy? Can the diamond loser disappear on something? Is there any danger in drawing trumps first?

This is why good declarer play often starts with the losing trick count, even when the bidding did not.

There is another useful point here. Not every apparent loser is a real loser.

If you have:

♣ K8 opposite ♣ A64

you do not have a club loser.

If you have:

♣ K8 opposite ♣ 964

you probably do.

And if you have:

♣ K8 opposite ♣ Q64

you may have one loser, depending on the position of the ace.

The aim is not perfect certainty. It is to understand where your contract is vulnerable.

One common mistake is to draw all the trumps automatically before considering whether dummy's trumps are needed to ruff losers.

If dummy has three small trumps and you have a side-suit loser that can be ruffed there, drawing every trump may destroy the very resource you needed.

Bridge Coach takeaway

When playing a suit contract, ask:

How many losers do I have, and what can I do with them?

That question will usually take you further than remembering you had 26 points.